Can EU leaders fix the European Project?

Lisbon or no Lisbon these days the Irish are getting a crash course on how the EU works.

  

The principle of solidarity no longer at play

We in Ireland were told that the EU is based on solidarity, the sharing of markets and resources and more recently the sharing of a currency.  But as the Euro is under severe threat so is the European project as a whole. And solidarity does not seem to be the bottom line. Other harsher forces are at play.

When Greece stepped out of line they were told to impose austerity cuts like the Irish had done; this was back in April.  This was not warm solidarity but the harsh uncaring knives of bankers looking for their money back.  They did not seem to care about the future consequences for the social fabric of Greece.

  

The knives are sharpen for Ireland

Next came Ireland.  In late November just before the cold spell the IMF and the EU brought their knives to Ireland. Ye have already cut they said but we think now ye should go deeper.  They sharpened their knives and gave them to the Irish government for them to do the cutting.  Like the Greeks the obvious lack of solidarity with the Irish was evident.

The EU leaders are afraid.  Afraid of the Euro failing and of the EU structure collapsing.  They are also afraid of the political reaction of their own countries.

  

Are these European leaders or just national leaders?

The life of an EU leader is different to the average man or woman.  Speaking to people on the street these days they also fear for their money.  I have spoken to many who are wondering what to do with their savings, some big, some small.  Should they put it in Rabodirect, the Dutch bank or even into a sterling account as the Euro may loss value?

Yet far removed from the average person the EU leader is driven around the streets

and meets people in well heated rooms and imposing buildings.  They listen to the rumblings from their political support in their own country and also listen to what the other EU leaders say.  A balance needs to be struck.

Helmut Kohl of Germany lead the European Project with Mitterand of France to closer EU integration and German unification.  Kohl had his eye on long term principles.  He was a European leader.  He  nurtured the principle of solidarity and lead this way.

Today we have Merkel and Sarkozy leading the engine of Europe.  Are these people leaders of the European project?

In a detailed interview in the Irish Times last June, Jurgen Habermas, a German philosopher and political thinker spoke of the current generation of German political leaders, Merkel being one of them, “these people shy away from farsighted goals and constructive political projects, let alone an undertaking like European unification.” (1)

As the European leaders meet in Brussels this Thursday and Friday to discuss the Euro debt crisis, two leading German political figures - Social Democrats parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier and former finance minister Peer Steinbrueck, writing in the Financial Times - said the eurozone needed a "more radical, targeted effort to end the current uncertainty".

These would include partially restructuring debts of Greece, the Irish Republic and Portugal, guaranteeing the bonds of stable countries and a limited introduction of pan-European bonds.

And earlier in the week the BBC stated

.. there has been criticism of some of the EU's key players who are seen as often dominating decision-making.

"I can only warn Germany and France against making a claim to power, which reflects a certain haughtiness and arrogance and disregards the European principle of solidarity," Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, told Die Welt newspaper. (2)

The Future Path for Europe

So the European project which was lead for years by Kohl and Mitterand under the principle of solidarity has spawned new leaders.  If these new leaders are not concerned with the European project what does the future hold?

At a pragmatic level the EU and the Euro needs to be fixed.  Even the leader of the IMF  Dominique Strauss-Kahn stated only last week “ The eurozone has to provide a comprehensive solution to this problem. The piecemeal approach, one country after another, is not a good one," (3)

At the EU summit this Thursday and Friday the EU agreed to formalise the bailing out of countries that are in debt trouble in the eurozone area.  They are describing this as a new solution yet it is nothing but writing down what they have been doing since the Greek crisis this year. There has been no change in their piecemeal policy. 

Moody's this week have warned Spain that they may downgrade its debt ratings which has significantly increased Spain's actual cost of financing its debt.  

The markets will rest over Christmas yet the clouds have not dispersed from over Spain. The first few months of 2011 will tell a lot.

Perhaps a new leader will emerge from another European country that can counter this and gather the other countries under an umbrella of solidarity inherited from Kohl and put Europe back on a stable footing.  Can Ireland influence this gathering?

Much is at stake.

Links

(1)    Habermas , Jurgen in http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0612/1224272354438.html

(2)    BBC in http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11997725

(3)    Strauss-Kahn in http://www.presstv.ir/detail/154436.html

Will Civic Disorder Spread to Ireland?

Police and Fire Brigade striking in Greece

A former government minister with blood on his face, youths throwing missiles, the police and the fire brigade on strike.  These were the scenes of civic chaos in Athens this week as the government voted in further austerity measures.  The IMF and EU have unleashed strong forces of political anger, unthinkable in Europe a few years ago.  And Greece has  more cutting of budgets to do next year and the year after, under the guidance of the IMF and the EU.(1)

The Irish parliament voted for its own EU/IMF bail-out this week amid more muted protests.  But fault lines are beginning to show here also.

On the ground during the ICTU march at the end of November it was evident that public disbelief had crystallised into dismay and large scale anger.  This anger was been harnessed by parties who previously have not held the reins of power.  These “ anti-establishment parties” are Sinn Féin, The Socialists and various disgruntled Independents. 

If these parties gain an electoral mandate in the forthcoming general election under the banner that the establishment has done the country a serious wrong then Ireland itself may unleash its own nasty forces of civic unrest.

In what form could Irish civic unrest manifest itself?

This is difficult to see but the public is unlikely to bottle it up for very long.  The sleepy Irish voter may become active.  What with large scale unemployment, with large number of young males wishing to stand up and be manly, all is needed are a few further ingredients and order could disintegrate fast.  A large anti-establishment vote would be one of these ingredients, directing  critical threat to the civic order.

Patriotic duty - Flying th Green Flag

Pearse Doherty, young and vibrant with a sharp intellect is a new force in the Dáil.  Gerry Adams looks very likely to be by his side.  Sinn Féin will be flying the Green Flag of Patriotism high.  The Irish people have been wronged.

On the other side Fianna Fáil are flying their Green Flag of Patriotism.  Lenihan and Cowen have barked for a long time that the Irish people had no other choice; we had to accept the bail-out.

It is noteworthy that if Fianna Fáil believe accepting the Bail-out was of serious national importance why did they not cover their historical reputations and put the Bail-out to a referendum/general election.  Fianna Fáil have taken a very serious gamble by doing so.  Some things are too big to be decided by government.   

History will judge this decision.

If forces of civic unrest are unleashed then Fianna Fáil may suffer politically for years.

Fianna Fail has lost the working class vote

Gerald O’Regan on Thursday spoke how Fianna Fáil deputies were shocked at their abysmal showing in the recent polls results.  The latest Irish Times poll gives a 90% dissatisfaction rating for them.  Some of the more established FF TD’s are retiring; quietly cognisant of the difficult battle ahead for the party.

In the working class areas, especially in Dublin, where FF did very well in the past two elections, their vote has literally collapsed. Sinn Féin and Labour are benefiting.

How are the Fianna Fáil TD’s shocked at these poll ratings, are they not walking the same streets as the rest of us?

They have refused to listen to the public and so have not changed.  They have turned into caricatures and will only be objects of ridicule in the next election.

Dark forces in 2011

If dark forces are unleashed in 2011 the Irish may pay a large price in social terms.  The Irish public’s image of the establishment and furthermore its relationship with Europe will be seriously damaged.

Will Fine Gael and Labour be able to harness this anti-establishment anger and turn it into something productive?  Perhaps.  Already they have voted against the Budget and the Bail-out and they are beginning their election footing by saying they will renegotiate the Bail-out. Will their election campaign have bite and vigour to attract the disgruntled voter.

If Sinn Fein and some other “anti-establishment” parties get into power will they be able to do so productively and be a positive force for change; Sinn Fein has made this establishment step in The Northern Assembly.

2011 will tell a lot.  We the Irish are a few steps behind the game.  If we had seen more sense and called an earlier general election, or even played a stronger hand with the EU/IMF  we would be further down the road of a more realistic solution to this crisis.  In 2011 we again will be waiting for the large countries in the EU to solve this problem.  And will be spend the first few months debating whether we should have taken the bail-out offered? Better late than never.  Hopefully the Irish can influence finding a better balance to their affairs next year and not end up like Greece with serious social unrest damaging the very fabric and order in society.

Links

(1) BBC pictures of Recent Greek riots  www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11998632

Ideas and action in Ireland - will 2011 bring change?

The Kerry Eagle hears much talk of hardship, unfairness and government ineptitude.  It is a difficult fact to accept but in 2007 the Irish people voted the current administration into power.  All Irish voters are part of this system, some with more power than others. Many people have worked tirelessly for years trying to affect political change but the Irish voter is a sleepy one.

The Irish voter likes to discuss politics. But when it comes to partaking in the political arena there is nothing much done.
It reminds me of a football team who discuss tactics endlessly pre and post match yet when it comes to doing some serious training and hard graft they are found wanting.  Little wonder then, when an Irish team is faced with tough European opposition, that we are pushed over very easily.

The Arena of Political Debate

Perhaps it was the Civil War that branded in the heads of Irish men and women that political action was dangerous, uncontrollable and best left to others.  After all the ideals and well constructed aspirations of the writers and intellectuals behind the Irish culture and political revival from 1880s onwards the nation expected great things. 

Yet a deep conservatism took hold in the 1920s, which spread its hold on the Irish political system in the 1930s and 1940s, on into the 1950s.  The Church took hold of thinking with an iron fist.
The Irish political system developed into a potatoes and meat machine. Rural, unsophisticated and not willing to change. Apart from a new writers and commentators the arena of political thinking was barren.

But the Irish people battled on.  Some ideas were written and spoken of but as abstract nothings, to be admired but without no connection to reality.  Intellectuals were believed not to be important in the shaping of a nation.
As a people we had forgotten the work done by Yeats, O'Casey, Pearse and Connolly.
 
The Church fills the vacuum

The church filled the arena of thinking with their strong religious ideas.  It had taken a hundred years.  During The Famine the Catholic authorities in USA were disgusted with the level of ignorance of the Irish arriving on its shores who claimed to be Catholic yet had no idea of Church thinking and practises.  They demanded that the Irish church start getting their house in order.  And so began a concerted effort to bring the church ideas into the minds of the Irish.

The church and their ideas brighten the peoples minds with hope.  They believed in their church, their prayers and their daily suffering for the goodness of the future and their children's future. 

This is not the case now. 

A Lack of Hope
 
Whatever about the lack of money these days there is also a serious lack of hope.  The cornerstone of Irish morality and spiritual practises, The Catholic Church, has been shown to be fundamentally untrustworthy and
deceitful. 

Without hope the people minds' are darkened.

Unfortunately the Irish after Independence put all their eggs into the one basket as regards thinking and ideas.  Institutions of though other than the Church were not fostered.

Non religious aligned writers and intellectuals did not work on Irish ground, they left the country in there droves.

Without a tradition of nurturing ideas that shape a country the current arena of political debate is disdainful of new ideas.  It is deeply conservative.  We have thrown away our reliance on Church thinking yet we hold onto one of its core beliefs;  no change is usually best.

Yet nature abhors a vacuum.  The current ways of doing thinking has been found wanting.  New ideas are needed.

Bereft of ideas that we believed in we have had ideas foisted on us by the men with money from Washington(IMF) and Berlin(ECB). 

The Future

2011 will be an important year.  Important decisions will need to be taken.

2010 was marked by our leaders following a deeply conservative path, of using old ways of things that have not worked.  There is a crisis in many areas of life.
New ideas are needed.  But will these ideas be given a chance to grow?

The team is weak.  The Irish voter favours the strongman who looks after his own and is conversative.  In a time of crisis it remains to be seen will the Irish voter rise from his/her slumber, take a look around at what is happening and engage with the political process in a meaningful fashion.

Will the Irish voter give power to new ideas, to institutions that foster thinking and open up arenas for political debate?

Or will he/she leave this work up to others who they can later criticise?

There is much work to be done.  We live in hope of a bright future.

Can we stand up and look the Germans in the eye?

There is much commentary these days that has an undercurrent of shame.  We Irish are fools and squandered away good money goes the line. Many Irish people are hanging their head in shame.  You can hear it in their speech as the espouse the merits of the Germans and criticize things Irish.

Our leaders hung their heads in shame themselves during the IMF/EU/ECB negotiations.  "We had messed up and we will do what is required of us". This will be done, our leaders believe, by showing our EU partners how remorseful we are by implementing bewilderingly large cuts in the recent budget.

Some think this is all about money.  Yes there is a large scarcity of money in Ireland but it is this shame and lack of dignity that will hinder us greatly.  

Where did this shame come from?

Is it shameful to have no money?

Can we not stand up with dignity and look the Germans and French in the eye?

A Euro problem

We in Ireland were offered loans from the Euro at 2% when our inflation was running at 3%.  In any modern consumer society the only sensible option is to borrow and spend.  And so we did for 8 years and had a property bubble. 


The Euro was set up by the EU leaders, including the Irish.  The system they set up was inherently flawed in that it was a sharing of monies yet there was no proper sharing of regulation.  Now we have a sharing of regulation as the EU are enforcing budget limits and more importantly limits on banks across Europe.
Yet the horse has bolted.  All this should have been done when the Euro was set up. 
This was a serious short sight by the EU leaders and has led us to the current impasse.  This impasse is so serious that the whole Euro and the EU as a whole are under threat.

Yet if this is the case why did the Irish leaders hang their heads in shame at the recent EU/IMF/ECB negotiations?

The EU - a community?

Since the EEC was set up in the 1970's in was done in the spirit of sharing.  We shared markets, rules and resources.  We would be stronger and more prosperous together.  We shared citizenship, land rights and laws.  Each member gave away a lot. The belief was that this sharing would lead us to good times.

In Ireland we welcomed the Poles and Lithuanians.  These are citizens of Europe like us; we all had signed up to Maastricht and Nice.

During the recent negotiations our Irish leaders lost sight of all that we have given away.  They hung their heads in shame and did what they were told.  The believed the argument that "We all partied" in Ireland and now we have to pay the price.

If the rules and systems of the Euro were not fit for purpose should we pay the price?

The EU was set up in the spirit of sharing.  So in the good times we shared but do we also share the hardships of the bad times.

The unfinished house in Longford is a problem for the Euro currency.  The people who control the Euro need to fix this with the Irish.  The Germans and the French think this is an Irish currency problem.  Yet this is not so.

As the Kerry Eagle has said before, the Irish leaders instead of hanging their heads in shame and waiting for the IMF/EU to arrive at the door they should instead have looked around for colleagues in times of trouble.  They should have had meetings at EU level and solved the problem in Brussels and Strasbourg where it originated.

Have all the members shared/given away their markets, land rights, citizenship, currency and political choices for nothing?  These are the cards we have in the negotiations so that each member can look the other in the eye with dignity.

The Irish break the rules

But the Irish leaders annoyed their EU partners when they guaranteed large bank debts without the agreement of the EU.  Instead of understanding that as part of a single currency large money issues need to be discussed and solved at EU level the Irish went mistakenly alone.  The EU leaders were furious.

This is one reason that the Irish leaders were ashamed.

We Irish have a long history of poverty and shame stems from this.  With ancestral cries in our ears we were unable to stand up for ourselves.

This shame emanting from our leaders has found resonance with the public.  Do we Irish have any dignity now when we have little money?  Is this what the Celtic Tiger has done to our spirit? In the 90 years as an Independent nation has we not come to terms with our historical past of poverty and head bowing to outside powers?

Dignity centres on principles of honesty and fairness.  It is also to do with being true to who you are.  It deals with the nurturing of the human spirit.
These skills of nurturing the human spirit for which the Irish have been so famous have been severely corroded.


The next round of Negotiations

It is important to realise that there most likely will be further negotiations, especially with the EU/ECB.  If the new Irish negotiators understand what is going on and are more principled and honest with their EU partners then we should get a better deal.

Our membership of the EU has been tarnished.  At a wider level the Euro is under threat and new rules are needed. Ireland is not the only country with debt problems.

Political tensions across Europe

Of course the large complicating factor here is that actual size of the debts that have been built up in Ireland and other countries.  This will cause large political tensions to arise across Europe.  The people in Germany and those other countries who will be asked to foot the bill will not be happy. The leaders in these countries
are afraid of the political consequences.  They could very easily lose their jobs.  Many of these leaders have been avid advocates of the European project, as was seen in the Lisbon debates in 2008 and 2009.  Can these German leaders now admit that they were wrong and that the Euro systems were insufficient and that the German tax payer must pay the bill for their short sightness?  This is very difficult for them and so it is easier to go and beat up on the Irish as bold EU partners.

The German leaders have other political fears, alternative groups are waiting in the wings.  In Ireland we have Sinn Féin, Socialists and a raft of independents.  All of these look set to prosper in these times where the established political parties look dishonest and not fit for purpose.

It is interesting to recall the Lisbon debate in Ireland.  On the Yes side were all the established political parties as well as many others people who were content with the status quo.  On the No side were the aforementioned Irish alternative groups as well as the disgruntled people.  A motley crew.  Yet it will
be this motley crew that will gain much political power in the forthcoming Irish elections.

But what is required in Ireland is leaders that can engage creatively with our EU members and solve these large issues.  The Irish people are caught in a bind.  The established parties track record in Lisbon and other EU negotiations is not good.  Ironically it was Fianna Fáil traditionally who were good at horse trading
yet this time the could not grasp the problem.

The non established parties have no track record in engaging with our EU partners.  Will these be better negotiators with the EU?

The new negotiators should understand all that Ireland and other members have shared/given away.  This is the spirit of the EU.  They can still look other Europeans in the eye even if they currently have no money.  They have sufficient earning potential.  Yet they should be honest and fair with their EU partners.

This is a time of crisis, important decisions need to be taken.

Protest March Irish style - ICTU march 27th Nov 2010

I was standing in the middle of the crowd outside the GPO.  A union steward on the stage urged people to keep moving along O'Connell street to make room for the people still arriving.  A group of people waving Arthur Morgan (SF) placards were unresponsive to his calls.
Next the steward announced we will be starting shortly and then "The wife of Mr Hannifan has lost him.  Would Mr Hannifan from Newcastlewest please come to the back of the big screen." Roars of laughter. "He's gone to the pub for a break from her", "I saw him in Ann Summers across the road".

It then kicked off; Fintan O'Toole leading the show, the crowd were a bit surprised but accepted him. He was fired up.  He spoke of a proud nation, of democracy and freedom and of how our leaders have abandoned us.
A middle aged lady of some gravitas then read out the 1916 proclamation.  94 years later the words echoed.  The crowd stood in silence listening.  Echoes of sovereignty, equality and a call for freedom.  Loud cheers greeted the end, people waving Irish flags in the air.  A great grand niece of the person who raised the Irish tricolour in 1916 rose it aloft.  More loud cheers. I got the feeling Sinn Féin will do will in the next general election.

O'Toole spoke again of being a free people and how what is happening with the IMF is undemocratic. There was a strong mood to get the current government out.  O'Toole lead the charge with "Out, Out, Out!" for one minute.  This and some foot stomping kept our feet warm.  We Irish are only new comers to this marching stuff.

Francis Black sang.  The song was very wordy but she put her heart into it.

A group of four young Dublin lads in their twenties next to me were enjoying the proceeding "Tis is deadly stuff", "Ya brilliant". At the start when some pop music was being played they roundly criticised it "This is not a bloody night club, how about some Luke Kelly".  They then noticed O'D's ex-girlfriend on the stage.  "What is she doing up there?"  "Taking a some photographs."
Next their friend O'D walked up to the mike and they were thrilled and texting.  O'D is an unemployed plumber and spoke of how as an apprentice he has put down 3 or so years to the trade but now is unemployed and like 8,000 others unable to finish his apprenticeship.  He spoke with a strong Dublin accent, young and from the heart.  Of wanting to work, of loving his country, of feeling let down by the leaders.  The
crowd loved him.  He raised both hands in defiance to the situation, basking in the adulation.

O'Toole saw that he went down well and skipped after him, clapping him on the back.  Returning to the mike "That was Keith O'Driscoll" and raised his hands in a similar fashion.  The crowd responded warmly.  O'Toole ain't bad at this, I wonder did he do something like this before.

Next a pensioner spoke, in her Sunday best and well spoken, the crowd clapped a bit.  A young lady from a Community Group then tore up the four year deal and went headlong for John Gormley, perhaps sensing a weakness.  She gave out Gormley's landline number and urged people to ring it now and for the next few weeks.

Jack O Connor spoke amid boos and shouts.  For some reason the crowd did not like this guy.  He got into a rant and spoke with an unusual accent.  David Begg kept it short and his words echoed better with the crowd and were able to jump over the boos.
Finally Christy Moore came out to great applause.  The Ordinary Man, we all sang, hearts sad but they can be warmed up. He then tried another song.  It sounded like it was penned the night before, a bit wordy and rusty. Still the crowd appreciated it, some good will and that was that.

The crowd rumbled around. One fellow on the street shouted passionately "Let's march on the Dáil and give the papers something to write about." These guys are media aware.  And so they did.

Walking to O'Connell bridge a large group gathered at Daniel O'Connell's large statue.  Richard Boyd Barret spoke of this only being the first of many marches.  Next big one on the 7th Dec, budget day.  A guy in the crowd lit a flare, the like you'd see in the San Siro.
Next Joe Higgins spoke.  This man  has a great voice, the strongest voice of all today.  He spoke of democracy and poured scorn on the IMF and the bondholders.  He spoke of joining with the workers across Europe, particularly in Portugal and Spain.  Here was the only clear recognition that this current crisis is Europe wide and that perhaps can only be solved with a European consciousness.  Joe's sojourn in Brussels and Strasbourg must be doing him good.
As I left the guards were looking on, no large numbers or riot squad in sight.  On Wicklow st later a battalion of eight gardai in riot gear on horses trotted quickly Dáilward, a few protests to quell.

An Irish style march.

What is on the horizon?

Moving in times of crisis

It is not easy in these times of crisis trying to move forward.  It is akin to walking with your eyes closed.  Daunting yet necessary.  To help this blind ambulation it can help to try and find out what the future might hold, at least this will shine some light on the darkness and one will not crash into anything too obvious.


Of course this is a national darkness so many people are walking around in varying states of confusion.  And in the darkness ghosts and fears lurk.  Ghosts of the past, fears for the future, at once ethereal but also potent in their ability to cause mental anguish and sleepless nights.
No wonder people are relieved to be talking about something as mundane and real as snow and the weather.  We as a nation can at least struggle against that.


But after the weather subsides the debate and confusion will return.  Being wintertime, a time for reflection, deep though and remembrance makes it trickier.  We will need some forms of relief from those hard to grasp fears that are outside our control yet impact on us.

Ghosts and fears

With these ghosts lurking in the darkness people will start doing strange things.  Of course ghosts from the past, like tricky neighbours or work colleagues must be engaged with every now and again, often from sheer necessity or chance.
At a national level the ghosts of the people who fought and died in 1916 may be called on.  Or even the people in the past who voted in the Maastricht treaty or those who voted in FF in the last election may be called on.  The past and its ghosts are powerful and like older people should be duly respected. Put we also should move forward.

What makes the current situation more difficult is that the ground on which we stand and strive to walk on is feeling shaky.  Now walking blindly amid ghosts and darkness on shaking ground is tough for any man or woman.

People will feel this and strive to strengthen the ground on which they stand.  But what is this ground?

You will see some people adopt a dogged approach putting the head down and working furiously. They may not engage with the debate on how to fix the country. When they look up and see that not everyone is working furiously they may become frustrated and bark at them.

Some others will find the going too hard or maybe feel too powerless and will stand still.  They most likely will not engage with the debate.  They will use whatever resources they have shored up or can get from people to keep their life going.  They may take some tablets or find it necessary to engage in delusions.

Others may take more extreme measures and throw in the towel.

Many will engage with the debate and strive to fix the country.  Much will be said and done with a tone of anguish and pain, perhaps alleviated with some drink and other forms of relief.


So what does the future hold - Next week the Budget?


On the horizon next week is the budget.  According to Pat Rabitte, last week on Radio One, he thinks the government will leave a lot of the big decisions to next year, for example the Social Welfare cuts will not be broached.  As Deputy Rabitte succinctly put it the IMF/EU agreements and four year plans are all front loaded, yet the actual policy implementation back loaded.  The government have been at this game for 13 years!

This will allow the government to pass a budget with no real big controversial points and bind the next administration into EU/IMF plans. The next administration will then do most of the cleaning up of the mess.  This is the strategy that FF has been using for years, working the system.
Yet is it killing the spirit of democracy, parliament and basic honesty of the political system.

The government released the Memorandum Of Understanding with the IMF/EU this week.  It details specific policy requirements which the Irish government are bound to take in 2011.  Among these are an increase in the pension age, large social welfare cuts, large reduction in the public service wage bill, new laws to reform the legal and medical profession and a new bill to address personal debt regimé.  If this is nota straitjacket for the incoming regimé I don't know what is.

One things leaps out at me here.  There will be a lot of strikes in 2011.  I can't see the large public sectors unions taking these cuts lying down.  Also the legal and medical profession.  These guys won't budge easily.


One of the standard levers to use to administer these cuts, is to get the people's buy in.  This is normally done by having a democratic debate or vote.  Thus as The President of Iceland said (see blog "Can Ireland learn from Iceland?") large changes must be done in harmony with the will of the people.

We are not doing things in harmony with the democratic will thus I expect large strikes in 2011.

The Greens and democracy

The Greens espouse local democracy as part of their foundational principles.  It seems strange that they cannot see that they are breaking one of their own principles and alienating their political base.  One must surmise that they believe the FF line that this is not a time for democracy as we have no choices.  There are always choices.  Even if the choices are very limited by not engaging properly in a democratic sense
and giving the people a voice erodes the spirit of democracy itself.

The other level available to the government is force.  I doubt the new administration has the appetite yet to bring the gardaí into government deal with these?


Snakes on the ground

It looks likely that there will be a legal challenge to the IMF/EU bail out deal.  The great Dev used this constitutional ploy to refuse to pay land annuities to the UK, precipitating the terrible Economic War.  Darren O' Donovan, a UCC lecturer in public international law, argues in the Irish Times, 2nd Dec 2010 that it may require a Dáil Vote.  The EU funding mechanism that Ireland is availing of is itself being challenged
in the German courts at the moment.  I'd say some citizen will challenge the bail-out deal here in the Irish courts.

The other major threat is the whole Euro as a monetary system.  This is under severe threat and looks like it will have to be resolved in the next 6 months.  What happens with the Euro will have an impact on Ireland in 2011.  Yesterday the ECB started essentially printing Euros to alleviate the problem.  The German people are against this as it weakens the Euro.
This is a sick hen which the markets will continue to pick at to see if it falls down.

The EU leaders are pumping resources via bail-outs into a crumbling system.  They do not know how to move forward in this crisis.  They are hoping that the Euro as a system is working as it currently stands yet it does not look so.  New rules and a new system are required yet the EU leaders are gripped by fear of the unknown and are in denial.  Something will have to give.


The Election in 2011


This will be an unusual affair.  Much of the debate will be frantic and aspirational.  How will the parties acknowledge that they will be straitjacketed by the IMF/EU and tempt the voters with anything but cuts and hard times?

I wonder will the election be fought on renegotiating the IMF/EU bail-out and the four year plan. I see the influential Fintan O'Toole is already trying to do this, see his column last Tuesday, 30th Nov, the Irish Times. Unfortunately this is a real danger and it will mean that it will set the country back about 6 months in the recovery.  But this is what you get when you do not treat a democratic people democratically and impose cuts that are not in harmony with the will of the people.

Can Ireland learn from Iceland?

Lessons to be learned?

Iceland has just come throught an economic crisis.  It  looked set to cripple them for years. Yet they have turned the corner that we in Ireland are finding elusive.  Can we learn some lessons from them?

Mr Olafur R. Grimsson, current President of Iceland, last Friday gave an interview  to Bloomberg. He spoke about how Iceland have regained financial stability.  He was very upbeat for the Icelandic economy which is surpassing all expectations as regards economic indicators.  Furthermore he hopes that Iceland will in 6 months become self financing, i.e. no longer need any help from the IMF.


The crisis in Iceland


Simliar to Ireland Iceland problems stemmed from a rapid expansion of their banking sector.  The Icelandic banks lent as recklessly than Irish ones, with its debt at the 900% of GDP(1) when the crisis broke in Oct 2008 (Just after the Lehmann's collapse and after the Irish government gave their infamous guaranntee to all bank debts.)


The IMF rode into Reykjavík in Dec 2008 and did a deal with the government.  The people took to the streets in what was termed the Kitchenware protest.  This began in Oct 2008 with one man and
a mike and escalated to daily protests and marches, some of which turned nasty and into riots.  The government fell and new elections occurred in April 2009 which saw the centre-right government being replaced by a centre-left.
Since then the people have become very engaged politically with the process of solving the crisis.

Mr Grimsson, a leader of  Iceland

Mr Olafur R. Grimsson, current President of Iceland, was first elected to the office in 1996.  This is his fourth term as President.(2)
 
He speak authoritatively for the Icelandic people and seems not to have be tanished by the corruption allegations which led to other political leaders being ousted.  Unlike the Irish politicians he speaks with a
tone of a real leader, straightforward and honest.

Not a just a financial crisis..a test of our democratic systems

Mr Olafur R. Grimsson says  "fundamentally this is not just a finanical crisis, it is also a fundamental test of our democratic systems"(6.10)

The UK and Dutch governemts tried to force an extremely large debt on the Icelandic people. Mr Grimsson would not agree to it and put the question to a referendum "The essence of the referendum was this, if the people of Iceland are being asked to pay for the failure of private banks, they should also have a say in the final outcome...So I don't think that any deal which will not be in harmnoy with the will of the Icelandic people is viable."(4.90)

Mr Grimsson says that the UK and Dutch now recognised that what they were asking the people of Iceland to do was unfair and are moving from their current position.  The negotiations are called Icesave.

What the Icelandic people have shown since the crisis started is a demand that the economic problems should be solved democratically.  This is what their President echoes.  When I visited Iceland about 5 years ago I noticed that the people were independent minded and extremely resourceful in the face of daversity.  Perhaps this has come from years of eking out a living in harsh condition.

The countryside was also very unculltered, particularly devoid of any large advertisements posters which are now the norm in every European/North American country.  A symbol of a more independent thinking country?


Democratic Protests Irish Style

What seems different in Ireland is that the Irish peole are slower off the mark when it comes to protesting.  But like the Icelandic people the Irish have a strong sense of justice and democracy althought this is often unexpressed at national political level.  The Irish have proved fairly reliant and resourceful since Independence.  And they make a big deal of Independence which they will draw on in these times of crisis.

The current Irish government looks like they are too intertwined with the rich and powerful.
The Irish people are slow to see this but it is becoming clearer.

The current government also is deaf to calls for getting the people involved in the big decision involving the IMF/EU which has far reaching consequences for the Irish for many years.  I wonder why they will not put things to a referendum or even a Dáil vote?  It is a natural democratic impulse to put very large and important national decisions to the people.  This is how democracy not only works but is seen to work.

This current administration has been in government for nearly 13 years.  But it is not only the government that needs changing.  Many mindsets and ways of doing things in Ireland need to change to solve this current crisis.


Tough times in Iceland

But it is not all bright news.  It has been a very difficult few years for the Icelandic people.  Unemployment and emigration has soared and recent protest centre around increased level of house repossessions which the new government promised to protect.(3)

Yet they have financially turned the corner and they are standing up for themselves.  Fingers crossed the Irish will start putting some effort into solving their own problems in a realistic sense and not leave it all up to others.  It is going to be tough either way, but perhaps if the people become engaged they might learn how to take responsibility for their actions and solve the crisis as best they can.


The Actual Interview



Here is the interview with the Icelandic President

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/64807970/

It is 6 minutes long, I presume the Bloomberg interviewer is being extremely clear in his
speech because of the international nature of the audience.

References

(1) For a detailed view of the  banking crisis see www.icenews.is/index.php/2009/02/10/entranced-by-banking/

(2) For some information on Mr Grimsson http://www.iceland.is/government-and-politics/Government/OfficeofthePresident/

(3)  Fresh Wave of Protests outside Icelandic Parliament, 02 Oct 2010
http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2010/10/02/fresh-wave-of-protests-outside-icelandic-parliament/