Police and Fire Brigade striking in Greece
A former government minister with blood on his face, youths throwing missiles, the police and the fire brigade on strike. These were the scenes of civic chaos in Athens this week as the government voted in further austerity measures. The IMF and EU have unleashed strong forces of political anger, unthinkable in Europe a few years ago. And Greece has more cutting of budgets to do next year and the year after, under the guidance of the IMF and the EU.(1)
The Irish parliament voted for its own EU/IMF bail-out this week amid more muted protests. But fault lines are beginning to show here also.
On the ground during the ICTU march at the end of November it was evident that public disbelief had crystallised into dismay and large scale anger. This anger was been harnessed by parties who previously have not held the reins of power. These “ anti-establishment parties” are Sinn Féin, The Socialists and various disgruntled Independents.
If these parties gain an electoral mandate in the forthcoming general election under the banner that the establishment has done the country a serious wrong then Ireland itself may unleash its own nasty forces of civic unrest.
In what form could Irish civic unrest manifest itself?
This is difficult to see but the public is unlikely to bottle it up for very long. The sleepy Irish voter may become active. What with large scale unemployment, with large number of young males wishing to stand up and be manly, all is needed are a few further ingredients and order could disintegrate fast. A large anti-establishment vote would be one of these ingredients, directing critical threat to the civic order.
Patriotic duty - Flying th Green Flag
Pearse Doherty, young and vibrant with a sharp intellect is a new force in the Dáil. Gerry Adams looks very likely to be by his side. Sinn Féin will be flying the Green Flag of Patriotism high. The Irish people have been wronged.
On the other side Fianna Fáil are flying their Green Flag of Patriotism. Lenihan and Cowen have barked for a long time that the Irish people had no other choice; we had to accept the bail-out.
It is noteworthy that if Fianna Fáil believe accepting the Bail-out was of serious national importance why did they not cover their historical reputations and put the Bail-out to a referendum/general election. Fianna Fáil have taken a very serious gamble by doing so. Some things are too big to be decided by government.
History will judge this decision.
If forces of civic unrest are unleashed then Fianna Fáil may suffer politically for years.
Fianna Fail has lost the working class vote
Gerald O’Regan on Thursday spoke how Fianna Fáil deputies were shocked at their abysmal showing in the recent polls results. The latest Irish Times poll gives a 90% dissatisfaction rating for them. Some of the more established FF TD’s are retiring; quietly cognisant of the difficult battle ahead for the party.
In the working class areas, especially in Dublin, where FF did very well in the past two elections, their vote has literally collapsed. Sinn Féin and Labour are benefiting.
How are the Fianna Fáil TD’s shocked at these poll ratings, are they not walking the same streets as the rest of us?
They have refused to listen to the public and so have not changed. They have turned into caricatures and will only be objects of ridicule in the next election.
Dark forces in 2011
If dark forces are unleashed in 2011 the Irish may pay a large price in social terms. The Irish public’s image of the establishment and furthermore its relationship with Europe will be seriously damaged.
Will Fine Gael and Labour be able to harness this anti-establishment anger and turn it into something productive? Perhaps. Already they have voted against the Budget and the Bail-out and they are beginning their election footing by saying they will renegotiate the Bail-out. Will their election campaign have bite and vigour to attract the disgruntled voter.
If Sinn Fein and some other “anti-establishment” parties get into power will they be able to do so productively and be a positive force for change; Sinn Fein has made this establishment step in The Northern Assembly.
2011 will tell a lot. We the Irish are a few steps behind the game. If we had seen more sense and called an earlier general election, or even played a stronger hand with the EU/IMF we would be further down the road of a more realistic solution to this crisis. In 2011 we again will be waiting for the large countries in the EU to solve this problem. And will be spend the first few months debating whether we should have taken the bail-out offered? Better late than never. Hopefully the Irish can influence finding a better balance to their affairs next year and not end up like Greece with serious social unrest damaging the very fabric and order in society.
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