Clarity as Gaelige

Watching the leaders' debate as Gaeilge on TG4 this evening a few things struck me. It is often much easier to see trends and habits when people are speaking in a language that does not come as naturally as their mother tongue.

Michaél Martin is very comfortable with the language in fact he is excellent at speaking full stop. But he is very like the best boy in the class; able to rattle off statistics and polished language very easily. But he comes across as too hard; perhaps it is too many years at the cabinet table and a little too many good lunches. Others say he was always like this.

Enda on the other hand stuck to the script – the 5 point plan I think he calls it. He rattles this off, a bit psalmish. But Enda gives off an air of the clean honest and straightforward man. This image is resonating with the public who are perhaps tired of trickery and double talk and yearn for a more principled and honest approach. But it remains to be seen if Enda is strong enough to make sure his policies are clean and honest. FG's history is as much mired in cronyism and parish pump politics as FF; it just is that they have not been in power for as long as FF.

Enda is also curiously looking like a winner; like a guy with a lot of people behind him.  The public are in a panic and straighforward Enda, even if he is a bit boring, seems to be their cup of tea, especially as he is coming across as confident and with plenty of followers.

Labour and Gilmore have not done their homework. For months the media and FG were saying that Labour had no policies drawn up. Yet Gilmore had been flying high in the polls. But now with the hard debating up and running Gilmore is lost and his policies appear to lack clarity and cohesion. Enda rattles off the 5 thing plan, giving the impression that they are working hard behind the scenes. In contrast Gilmore looks a bit too populist, with not enough work done.  The public want to see people who will at least work hard and sensibly.

In fairness to FG they seem to have worked hard, prepared themselves well and chosen a formula that is resonating with the public. Is this what Enda is about, restructing the party for 9 years with good old fashioned hard work and a bit of cleverness?  I just hope it wont take Enda as long with restructuring Ireland.

The only real threat to FG for command of the middle ground is Labour. I would think it is worth Labour's time to challenge FG that they are not radical enough. Labour's roots should be more working class, allow the middle ground to FG and work more on the working class. Challenge FG that they will not do enough to burn bondholders or restructure debt. But SF are doing this with more zeal and so Labour are being squeezed on two fronts. Labour should have thought this through.

The Greens

I can't see any Green TD holding onto their seats. I hear that latest opinion poll for Ryan is 2%. They are being hammered for not being strong enough to stand up to FF in government. The only man for that job was Trevor Sargeant and he swore not to lead the party into government with FF and resigned the leadership. This in hindsight was a fatal blow; Gormley was not tough enough; Ryan seemed to be happy once in power and FF keep feeding him morsels of power until he coughed on them eventually.  Sargeant would have been tougher.

Unfortunately I'd say the Greens could have made an important contribution to the debate on principles and clean honest politics. They have been tarnished and need togo to their compost heaps and renourish.

One week to go and by my reckoning it is basically game over. I must check out the bookies in the next few days!